🔥 SEOs Diners Club #206: In AI Search, Ranking is Dead. Long Live AI Visibility!

Hello folks,

As we wrap up another packed week, the world of digital marketing feels like something straight out of a sci-fi movie. On one hand, AI assistants are getting ready to do our jobs for us, and on the other, the search dynamics we've known are being shaken to their core. If you're still operating with the traditional SEO "ranking" mindset, you're essentially chasing a ghost. This week, we'll talk about how to navigate this chaos and seize the opportunities. If you're ready, buckle up, let's begin!

🚀 Ranking is Dead, Long Live AI Visibility! The New Reality of AI Searches

The marketing world is in a state of massive uncertainty: Brands are spending millions of dollars to appear in the recommendation lists of AI tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini. But how rational are these investments? SparkToro's founder, Rand Fishkin, sparked a major debate by calling this situation a "boondoggle."

The bottom line is this: AI tools are not 'answer machines'; they are statistical lotteries. Recent research inspired by Carnegie Mellon University's methodology proves how inconsistent these tools are in their brand recommendations. The data is striking:

If you ask ChatGPT or Google's AI the same question 100 times, your chance of getting the exact same list of brands in any two responses is less than 1%. If you expect the list to appear in the same order, the probability drops to as low as 1 in 1000.

"AI tools are not 'answer machines'; they are statistical lotteries. The results a user sees are a random selection based on the probability calculations of that moment, rather than a specific quality criterion." - Rand Fishkin

This situation completely invalidates the obsession with the "#1 spot" in traditional SEO and introduces a new concept: "Visibility %". The question we should be asking is no longer "What's our rank?" but "When the AI generates 100 answers on this topic, how many of them mention our brand?"

The best example illustrating this shift is the City of Hope hospital case: When ChatGPT was asked for the best cancer hospitals on the US West Coast, City of Hope appeared in 97% of the responses (high visibility), but it was at the top of the list in only 25% of those responses. The lesson is clear: being at the top is a momentary stroke of luck, but staying in the game is a strategy.

So, Where Do ChatGPT Ads Fit into This New Reality?

ChatGPT ads, announced in recent weeks and causing a huge stir in the marketing world, offer an opportunity to increase your brand's number of tickets in this new "visibility" game. Yes, they come with premium prices and limited data, but we shouldn't think of it like classic advertising. The goal here is to make the AI include your brand more frequently in its probability set.

As an analysis in AdExchanger points out, ChatGPT's "memory" is its biggest asset. It can offer a special deal to a user not just by knowing they're interested in running, but by knowing when they last ran a marathon and what gear they researched. This carries the potential to turn your visibility directly into qualified leads.

Take Action:

1.Stop Tracking Rankings: Question reports that say "I'm #1." Instead, focus on measuring your brand's Visibility Percentage by testing with synthetic prompts.

2.Evaluate the Arbitrage Opportunity: While ChatGPT ads are not yet saturated, allocate test budgets to increase your brand's visibility by taking advantage of the low-competition environment.

3.Invest in AEO (Answer Engine Optimization): The most organic way to increase your visibility is to become an indispensable part of the AI's dataset. Do this by continuously feeding it with comprehensive, reliable content.

📊 Algorithm & Search Engine Updates

• Things are turbulent on the Google front this week. Throughout January, we've been experiencing ongoing and intensifying ranking volatility. It's rumored that this might be related to Gemini 3 becoming the default model for AI Overviews.

• More importantly, a new report from Datos and SparkToro revealed that the number of Google searches per user in the US has dropped by about 20% year-over-year. This shows that AI-powered instant answers are leading users to search less, increasing the value of each and every visibility point.

🤖 News from the AI World

The AI world was abuzz this week with the concept of "agentic" autonomous assistants that act on our behalf.

• Anthropic Takes the Stage: Claude has virtually transformed into a business operating system with its new "agentic plugins" for the Cowork platform and interactive apps that integrate directly with business tools like Slack, Asana, and Figma.

• Agentic Capabilities from Google SAGE and Chrome: With a new research paper called SAGE, Google revealed how AI agents conduct deep research. The key takeaway: pages that present all information on a topic in one comprehensive place will win. At the same time, Google is bringing this agentic vision to life with 3 new AI features added to the Chrome browser.

• In light of these developments, the idea of creating Custom GPTs to automate your own SEO workflows is more valuable than ever. Also, I highly recommend you don't miss the video I published this week, titled "Claude Does the Hardest Jobs in Excel in Seconds," where I explain how you can perform data analysis with Claude and Excel.

💡 Practical SEO Tips

The most practical SEO tip distilled from all of this week's developments comes from both the SAGE research and the "AI Visibility Percentage" logic: "Information Co-location."

Your strategy should be to present all possible subtopics, questions, and data related to a topic on a single comprehensive page. Answer the "next question" a user or AI might have before they even think of it. This will make you not just a source of information, but a "destination" for the topic itself. By doing so, you ensure your brand has a ticket in every draw of the AI's statistical lottery.

👋 Closing

As you can see, folks, the digital marketing universe is more dynamic and exciting than ever. Traditional "ranking" logic is being replaced by new concepts like "visibility percentage" and "agentic" optimization. The way to survive and thrive in this new order is to adapt quickly to change and experiment fearlessly.

If you're wondering how your brand should be positioned in this new era of artificial intelligence and want to prepare your SEO and GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) strategies for the future, don't hesitate to contact me through Stradiji.com. We can chart the right course for your brand over a cup of coffee.

Remember, the future is already here - it's just not evenly distributed. Here's to being among the first to see the opportunities…

See you next week!

Mert Erkal

About Mert Erkal

Mert Erkal is an expert with 15+ years of experience in digital marketing and SEO. As the founder of Stradiji, he provides consulting services to corporate companies on SEO strategies, conversion rate optimization, and AI integration.

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